Proceedings of the Public Security S&T Summer Symposium 2009

CRTI 07-0109RD

Development and Application of Foresight and Future Visioning to Support Capability-Based Planning for Animal Health Emergency Management in Canada

Project Lead: Canadian Food Inspection Agency

Federal Partners: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Public Health Agency of Canada

Industry Partners: Dairy Farmers of Canada, TDV Global Inc.

Other Partners: Alberta Agriculture and Rural Development, Ontario Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Canada’s Veterinary Colleges

Objectives

A threat to animal health could have devastating consequences related to public health, economic security, food safety, and the environment. Canada’s Animal Health Emergency Management (AHEM) system must have effective capabilities to anticipate, prevent, prepare for, and respond to animal health emergencies. Foresight, defined as a set of strategic tools that emphasize a long-term perspective to gain insight on future needs and priorities, can help chart likely futures and inform key decision making on investments in capability.

The project has been structured around three phases: Phase 1, “Planning, Learning, and Community Building”; Phase 2, “Applying Foresight to Animal Health Emergency Management”; and Phase 3, “Developing Priorities.” Through participation from federal, provincial, academic, and industry partners, the intent of the project is to use foresight as an effective part of capability-based planning.

Relevance

As a part of the CRTI capability-based planning model, foresight offers the means to consider the long-term perspective when identifying future risks, needs, and required capabilities. Consideration of anticipated future outcomes when directing investment can form an invaluable part of the strategic planning process, particularly for organizations concerned with capital expenditures in emergency management. Best practices and lessons learned derived from the application of foresight within the AHEM domain, and integrated with the findings of other foresight initiatives, can be disseminated to a broader community to provide guidance on how to introduce effective foresight in planning within other organizations.

Recent Progress and Results

Phase 1 has been completed, culminating in an introductory workshop in January 2009 that involved over 80 participants representing government, academia, industry, and non-governmental organizations. The workshop introduced the concepts and methodologies of foresight to be employed in the project. International speakers provided lessons learned from their own experiences in the application of foresight to both the public health and animal health domains.

Phase 2 is organized around four foresight modules, the first of which is an exercise challenging workshop participants to identify the key issues and driving forces that have an impact on AHEM. Foresight work undertaken in subsequent months has built upon the outputs of the first activity.

The second foresight module, conducted in April, involved a smaller group of participants participating in facilitated scenario development. The gathered experts were asked to articulate four divergent visions of the future given the uncertainty of identified driving forces. This range of future outcomes provides a framework for identifying key risks and testing the robustness of different strategic options.

The third foresight module, conducted in May, challenged a group of participants to engage in facilitated systems mapping. This process involves developing a common perspective across organizations and disciplines to increase understanding of the current AHEM system. Analysis of the map of relevant elements and key relationships allows for the identification of key leverage points in the system, which are areas where activity should be focused to enact effective change.

The fourth foresight module, to be conducted in October, will integrate the current and future perspectives together. The objective is to initiate identification of anticipated gaps in capability given the range of future outcomes, and begin to develop the associated recommended actions to be undertaken given the key leverage points in the system.

Given the challenges of engaging a broad range of project participants distributed across the country and representing numerous organizations, the project has employed innovative information technology measures to encourage the evolution of a virtual community. A social networking website, <www.forecan-precan.ca>, offers project participants the means to actively participate in dialogue, provide commentary and validation on foresight-driven deliverables, and inform themselves on other foresight initiatives currently underway in Canada and internationally. In addition, electronic surveys have been administered to project participants both before and after events to chart the performance of the project and, specifically, to ascertain knowledge transferred and confidence in the methods employed, and solicit feedback on an ongoing basis.

Impact

The collaborative articulation of potential outcomes beyond the traditional strategic planning horizon offers a means to better anticipate the required future capabilities for emergency management. The application of foresight also encourages multi-jurisdictional consensus on the current gaps within the emergency management system and on potential policy and operational changes that are required to address them.

Research and development on the most effective ways to conduct foresight within public sector organizations will help increase the comfort and familiarity of planners with the concepts and methodologies while identifying critical success factors, best practices, and lessons learned associated from its effective usage.

Author

Shane Renwick, Canadian Food Inspection Agency, shane.renwick@inspection.gc.ca

TABLE OF CONTENTS